Lorcan Nyhan: Tim Walz has a critical week ahead in the Democrats’ bid to woo undecided US voters

Originally published in the Sunday Independent.

Kamala Harris is continuing to astound, delivering moments of political genius that few who watched her 2020 presidential campaign could have predicted. Plumping for Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate — ahead of the more obvious candidacy of Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania — is precisely such a moment.

Why? Because it keeps the Harris honeymoon going.

Kamala already has nudged into a lead over Donald Trump. Pollster Nate Silver’s aggregated polling has her 2pc ahead in national polls, while Ipsos has her up two points across the swing states.

Her most important campaign aim has to be to keep the good vibes going until the Democratic National Convention, which opens on August 19.

Walz was a universally popular selection within the Democratic Party. No one in her party is annoyed at her for picking the affable, liberal former high-school football coach.

Bernie Sanders loves him. Joe Manchin loves him. The unions love him. The online left loves him. Democratic crowds love him. He’s the unity candidate. Momentum coming into the convention had to be generated at all costs. It’s her chance to dominate the campaign. The convention itself will be choreographed four-day celebration — one that will present Harris as the heir to Barack Obama’s energy.

If they nail it, I’d expect a post-convention bounce of up to 3pc in national polls. If Trump sees polling numbers that have him 5pc behind nationally, he will short circuit.

When Trump feels under siege, he lashes out. When he lashes out, he appears unhinged. When he appears unhinged, he repels all bar his base.

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